Notes from Nassim Nicholas Taleb talk at the LSE
Procrustean bed
Missing layer of uncertainty
Ricardo: Competitive advantage
1/n Irish potato famine, monoculture. Prone to model error.
Can treat m.e. as Convex/concave
"don't cross a river thats 4 ft deep on average" Jensen
Have uncertainty outside the equation, not vv
Statistical undecidability
"for the sake of argument"=the diff btw sophists? & fhilosophrs
Markowitz
Modigliani-Miller "had to go to Sthm for that"
Find job that fits their ethics vs fit ethics to job (find reasons)
nonlinearity, bailouts penalise
Slide on ice on mountain roads in Lebanon Society robust to model error, unless you know from god that alpha is 2
US vs UK/Eur economists Planck, Berlin, heuristics, eye on baseball, running to catch it,
eye/body magic optimises run
For H need experience Ethical problem when dealing w instuments exposed to big tails Satisfising v optimising EMU... I don't know – next question!
Djaarl
Karl Popper... Same room, of --- sceptical scepticism 2008 measures, history not experiment, not questioning measure but system Econ religious... Bible -/+ advice 681 v 225 Elephants neg heuristics Fucking xy z... Influence where: Mandelbrot, Popper infl of predecessors.
Neuroscientist Edelmann functional redundancy or sth negative epistemology human need for safety... Heur (rules of thumb which have survived
time) not model based (Sent from my iPhone)